The short-term double-top calls for further weakness (by MIG Bank).
AUD/USD has broken its support at 0.9058, after failing to decisively break the resistance at 0.9221. The implied short-term double-top calls for further weakness towards 0.8895. An hourly support lies at 0.8920 (07/08/2013 low). Hourly resistances can be found at 0.9058 (intraday high) and 0.9103 (19/08/2013 low).
In the longer-term, the break of the strong support at 0.9388 (04/10/2011 low) opens the way for a further medium-term decline. However, we keep in mind that if the current recovery phase were to gain traction and decisively break the key resistance at 0.9345, we would have to reassess our outlook. Other resistances are at 0.9500 (psychological level) and 0.9666 (14/06/2013 high).
Potential timeline for Fed tapering QE and first rate hike
Earlier today the NY Fed published their July Survey Response of Primary Dealers. While this contains a plethora of information, we believe the most pertinent response was with respect to the their expectations for the monthly pace of asset purchases over the next year. In the table below we compiled their ‘median’ view after each of the FOMC meetings scheduled through July 2014 and sure enough they too believe that the Fed will begin to scale back QE at the September meeting, affirming our 3Q outlook.
From this survey it appears that QE tapering could come in the form of a combination of Treasuries & MBS. Initially, the FOMC may prefer to reduce Treasury purchases at a faster pace than MBS’s in efforts to provide support to the US housing market. In terms of ‘how to taper’ the FOMC has been rather consistent with the mantra of ‘assessing the economic data’, although if we look at the table above this seems very similar to a preset ‘schedule’ whereby they see the ‘pace of tapering’ at a smaller $10-15B, but somewhat consistent amount. This timeline sees QE3 come to an end by June 2014.
With June 2014 now in mind, the market may have a more concrete view about the timing of the first Fed rate hike, which is when the Fed will begin to “apply the brakes”. In order to do this we will analyze the 30-day Fed Fund futures curve. Two days ago, pre-July FOMC meeting minutes, the market was priced to see the first rate hike (to 0.50%) around April 2015, however as of today (post-NY Fed survey results) the curve has not only steepened, but has also shifted materially to the left.
Accordingly, the market now believes the timing of the first Fed rate hike could be February 2015.
не скажу, що байдуже - бо тримаю купівлю, чи захеджований з усіх боків )) купівлею доляра проти товарного NZD. дійсно не відаю, хоча таке рідко буває )))
" у европейских активов - и биржевых, и небиржевых - потенциал роста пока намного выше. Так что в ближайшее время немалая часть гуляющих по планете денег, в том числе и тех, что выводятся теперь из несколько утративших былую привлекательность стран БРИКС, наверняка потечет именно в еврозону. В результате, по мнению Федерального объединения торгово-промышленных палат Германии (DIHK), курс евро в 2014 году вырастет до 1,35-1,40 доллара. Давать подобные прогнозы - дело крайне неблагодарное, как мы знаем. Но среднесрочный тренд, думается, предсказан верно." Автор: Андрей Гурков, экономический обозреватель DW
але в умовах збільшення геополітичної напруги доляр знову може продемонструвати свою парадоксальну властивість "посміхатися" - укріплюватися по широкому ринку не дивлячись на слабку стату та монетарні стимули
"посмішка доляра" - хоч і не надовго, але дуже болісно
більшість спостерігачів та шпекулянтів очікує відновлення довгострокового висхідного тренду по USD/JPY :
а в мене щойно спрацювали тейки на короткі USDJPY 98,62/97,25 та EURJPY 132,03/130,47 : планую продовжувати підливати проти сподівань долярових бичків ))
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