UBS Euro area economist Reinhard Cluse expects the refi rate to be cut by 15bps to 0.1% and the deposit rate from zero to -0.15% at its 5 June policy meeting. An extension of the "full allotment mode" is on the cards, and general liquidity injections may also be considered closely over the summer.
A negative deposit rate is not priced in in our view, particularly if it comes with the threat of additional cuts to follow and greater discussion of quantitative easing.
UBS analysts expect EURUSD to move lower to 1.33 over 3 months and further down to 1.25 over 12 months.
ЛОБ написав: Додано: П'ят 23 тра, 2014 15:45 наступний тиждень проходитиме вірогідно під впливом технічної торгівлі на фоні легенького економічного календаря без якихось важливих подій
схиляюсь до продовження короткострокового тиску на курс Євро та досягнення технічних цілей якраз для активації означеної раніше тактики BUY LONG
трьома еліпсами позначено транші на вхід у довжину в залежності від ступеня ризику : 1 - технічно за трендом десь від рівня 1,3520, 2 - більш помірковано у діапазонф 1,3440-1,3370 на здоровій корекції у 50 % річного висхідного імпульсу, 3 - виключно консервативно від 1,3310-1,3240 на повноцінному розвантажуванні позицій хеджерів та спекулянтів відслідковуючи сигнали призупинки та розвороту.
СТОП рівні зображено червноими горизонтами.
остаточний СТОП-вихід та РОЗВОРОТ під 76 % Фібо рівнем на закритті нижче 1,3050 (старий рівень-перемикач 1,3030-1,2970)
спокій та витримка.
купуємо Євро по ринковому поточному курсу, що EUR/USD - що EUR/UAH : 1,3625 та 16,25 відповідно. гра цифр.
Probabilities Of ECB Policy Options And The Euro Response - Westpac
Cut in refinancing rate - 70%
EUR impact: The direct impact of a refi rate cut on EUR is somewhat moot - it is likely to be swamped by the stronger focus on negative deposit rates. Although very unlikely, a cut in the refi rate and no additional policy measures would see EUR rally strongly on Thursday. President Draghi is surely well aware of the risks of under-delivering against heightened expectations.
Negative deposit facility rates - 70%
EUR impact: Negative deposit rates are widely discounted so the immediate impact may be muted. That said, as the policy works its way through the system EUR should fall across the board as it adopted as a funding currency for "carry trades", most notably vs EM and dollar bloc currencies. The EUR TWI could fall 3-4% in the 3 months following negative deposit rate.
Suspend sterilisation of SMP - 30%
EUR impact: Suspending weekly SMP sterilisation operations would send a strong signal that the ECB is open to "full-blown QE". The EUR TWI could fall 2-3% in the 3 months following the suspension of SMP sterilisation operations.
Present plan to conduct purchases of private assets (QE) - 30%
EUR impact: EUR would see kneejerk selling on the announcement of a plan for ABS purchases (i.e. an immediate 1-2% fall in the TWI) but it is not clear that weakness will be sustained. ABS-focused purchases could boost confidence in the single currency and may well encourage yet more flows into the periphery. EUR could thus conceivably rise (after initial losses) in a scenario of ECB asset purchases, much as it did in early 2012 when the ECB launched unlimited LTROs.
Strengthen forward guidance - 30%
EUR impact: Money markets are pricing ECB rate hikes to begin in Q3 2016. Pushing expectations for policy normalisation even further out would bring down short term interest rates and weigh on EUR, but probably not dramatically, given the limited net response to the introduction of stronger guidance in Jan 2014.
Funding for lending program - 20%
EUR impact: Minimal EUR impact, as per the the UK's experience. If anything may give the currency a mild medium term boost to the extent that it helps kickstart impaired credit channels.
Another long term refinancing operation (LTRO) - 10%
EUR impact: Limited EUR impact. If announced without other measures, probably EUR-positive.
OUTLOOKS & STRATEGIES for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and AUD/USD as provided by the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA).
EUR/USD: Bullish. Target 1.3950. Dips in EUR likely to be short-lived even if ECB cuts rates.
EUR/USD is likely to remain firm and continue to inch higher due to five factors: (1) Eurozone’s large €220 billion current account surplus (2.3% GDP); (2) further Eurozone commercial bank repatriation; (3) further investor portfolio inflow; (4) Eurozone exporter buying to cover under-hedged USD revenues; and (5) a soft USD. While there remains a reasonable risk the ECB responds to low inflation with further with further jawboning and/or policy easing, we don’t believe it will significantly dampen EUR.
GBP/USD: Bullish. Target 1.6900. Dips in GBP likely to remain shallow.
GBP/USD is likely to remain firm reflecting the improving UK economy. The interest rate market is grappling with the timing of a BoE interest rate hike by December. The risk is the BoE delays raising interest rates until mid-2015. But we see further GBP upside.
USD/JPY: Bullish. Target 104. USD/JPY likely to lift to 104.00 by end-June
In the short-run, USD/JPY is likely to continue to closely follow the direction of the US ten-year treasury yield. Over the medium term, we see US ten-year treasury yields lifting. But we believe USD/JPY will continue to rise because of the collapse in Japan’s current account surplus, which has moved from a fifteen-year average of 3.1% of GDP to less than 0.5% of GDP.
AUD/USD: Bullish. Target 0.9500. AUD/USD likely to lift towards 0.9500 by mid- June.
AUD/USD is likely to trend higher on five factors: (1) The Australian economy is improving and the fear of a sharp domestic mining investment slowdown is receding; (2) foreign purchases of A$ bonds have picked-up; (3) the RBA appears to have stopped talking down the AUD after shuffling to an neutral bias; (4) the global economy is improving and Australia’s terms of trade are not under large downward pressure; and (5) a soft USD.
The ECB can only really take offsetting policy action against persistently low inflation and hope that it may have a lasting influence on the exchange rate. Admittedly, the introduction of a negative deposit rate would be an unprecedented development for a major central bank, so were it to materialise, the ECB would be entering unchartered territory. In the 1970s when the Swiss National Bank introduced a negative deposit rate for non-residents in an attempt to stem capital inflows and a strengthening currency, it was unsuccessful. The question is would a negative deposit rate deter capital inflows to the euro area?
In the short-term, therefore, we are more neutral on the euro's prospects. The currency's core fundamentals remain very strong and the results of the May European Parliamentary elections failed to see worst case expectations about the euro area's politics materialise.
TWI = Trade-Weigthed Index (розрахунковий курс Євро, зважений за кошиком валют основних торгівельних партнерів)
Eurozone economy on course for best quarter in three years, as recoveries in Germany, Italy and Spain offset weakness in France. Final Eurozone Composite Output Index: 53.5 (Flash 53.9, April 54.0) Final Eurozone Services Business Activity Index: 53.2 (Flash 53.5, April 53.1)
Morgan Stanley: Possible ECB Actions & EUR Response At A Glance
In the table below we list the extent of EUR decline we envisage under various, but not comprehensive, scenarios, with EURUSD heading lower into the 1.34-1.32 area the most likely outcome, we believe. We also believe that the central bank could maintain a dovish tone, maintaining anticipation of potential further easing, and keeping the EUR under pressure even if just the minimum of measures is delivered.
ПС. широка строката кумпанія опонентів від кукелів до дрібних зазивал ))
PRESS RELEASE 5 June 2014 - Monetary policy decisions
At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the ECB took the following monetary policy decisions:
1. The interest rate on the main refinancing operations of the Eurosystem will be decreased by 10 basis points to 0.15%, starting from the operation to be settled on 11 June 2014.
2. The interest rate on the marginal lending facility will be decreased by 35 basis points to 0.40%, with effect from 11 June 2014.
3. The interest rate on the deposit facility will be decreased by 10 basis points to -0.10%, with effect from 11 June 2014. A separate press release to be published at 3.30 p.m. CET today will provide details on the implementation of the negative deposit facility rate.
The President of the ECB will comment on the considerations underlying these decisions at a press conference starting at 2.30 p.m. CET today. Further monetary policy measures to enhance the functioning of the monetary policy transmission mechanism will be communicated in a press release to be published at 3.30 p.m. CET today.
Додано: Сер 28 тра, 2014 17:47
