оновимо технічний малюнок по ФУНТу :
денний інтревал :
тижневий інтервал :
гуртом і батька добре бить )))
гадаю, бакс саме у передвиборчий рік здаватиме свої позиції по широкому ринку проти основних світових Євро, фунта, франку, канадця, австралійця та драгметалів. а далі подивимося ...
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Додано: Пон 02 кві, 2012 12:36
багатьом не зрозумуміло, що ж коїться з фунтом )))
з точки зору потенціалу росту (до 1,75 і вище) нічого вартого нашої уваги не трапилося )). то ж зосерджено спостерігаємо та чекаємо. дадуть ще раз 1,5600 - докупимося. фіксувати копійки зараз не має сенсу - закріпимося над 1,60 - побачимо 1,65. черовним виділено ключові думки. далі буде ...
Додано: Вів 10 кві, 2012 13:34
GOLDMAN SACHS О ДОЛЛАРЕChanges in the pro-growth scenarios For a variety of reasons, we take the ‘Dollar smile’ framework with a large grain of salt. One reason is that
correlation structures have changed substantially in recent years. Back in the 1990s and early 2000s, correlations between risky assets and FX were quite low. FX moved in a synchronised fashion only when relatively extreme shocks hit the economy. In contrast, one of the strongest correlations we now observe is systematic USD weakness in response to strong risky assets returns, as we have discussed frequently (see chart above). In other words, a key underlying assumption in the ‘US Dollar smile’ looks to have changed, and this in our view questions the right-hand side (tail) of the smile (USD up on strong US growth). Indeed, we would argue that strong US growth would normally boost global risk appetite. The US economy rem ains the largest economy globally, by some margin, and better demand growth typically spreads to other countries. Via the correlations, improved risk sentiment would then put downside pressure on the USD. Beyond risky asset correlations, there is another transmission channel via rate differentials, and this is an interesting but counterintuitive relationship. Since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) the Fed has been more dovish than most other central banks—partly because of the size of the US output gap and partly because of the dual mandate of the Fed. As a result, better growth in the US has in recent years led to a Dollar negative widening in interest rate differentials. In other words, central banks outside the US feel more compelled to raise rates in response to better US data than the Fed. Rate differentials and risky asset correlations therefore are two key reasons why the Dollar no longer ‘smiles’ in response to better data. A separate line of argument is that home bias was generally more pronounced until the early 1990s, while these days foreign investors are already heavily invested in US assets, mirroring large US current account deficits over the years. One can invisage a scenario in which foreign investors use a market rally to repatriate previously invested capital out of the US, as the recent trends in US portfolio data suggest. Broadly speaking, we think there are two likely scenarios for the US: 1) Growth slows back below potential (but remains clearly positive), the period of rapid improvement in the labour market comes to an end, and the Fed resumes balance sheet expansion via sterilised QE3. 2) Growth is close to trend, the unemployment rate continues to fall slowly, and the Fed remains on hold but abstains from QE3. The main difference between the first and second scenarios is whether QE3 happens, i.e., whether the Fed engages in additional easing or simply stays on hold. The first and in our opinion most likely scenario corresponds to the baseline for our FX forecasts, which foresee weaker US data and sterilised QE3. In such a world, we would expect the broad USD to fall 5% over the next year, with EUR/$ rising to 1.45 and $/JPY falling back to 74.00. We think the second, somewhat less likely, scenario sees USD trade in a range, with FX markets dominated by idiosyncratic moves that reflect country-specific developments. More broadly, we think broad USD weakness will reassert itself in coming months on the basis of continued moderate US growth and somewhat better growth in the rest of the world, in particular China (as discussed in more detail in the next section). The FX market will therefore likely shift away from the second pricing scenario described above. PS. увы, всего лишь конгениально просто ! но и мы задних не пасем : большинство из озвученных тезисов ожидаемо и понятно. и даже частично произнесено в разное время )))
Додано: Вів 10 кві, 2012 14:23
EUR, daily
рівень 1,30 виявив зацікавленість у купівлі Євро щоб нам не розказували "жовті" сторінки ... та прогнози деяких експертів : Востаннє редагувалось ЛОБ в Вів 10 кві, 2012 14:35, всього редагувалось 1 раз.
Додано: Вів 10 кві, 2012 14:26
ринкові настрої короткострокових спекулянтів стосовно Євро суто негативні :
EURUSD Comments: ecPulse.com analysis team: Breaking 1.3000 accompanied by a weekly closing will force the pair towards 1.2800 followed by 1.2600 before any upside attempts Gavin Grier-Rees: The sugar rush from the ECB LTRO is already fading as austerity policies tip peripheral countries back into destabilizing recessions — again. Across the pond the US continues to grow and the EU-US economic divergence widens by the day. So EUR USD down on both European negatives AND US positives. Hugo Venter: The strong downwards movement over the last few days is typical third wave behaviour which is what we expected to see within the pair. We expect that we are likely to see the end of the first wave within this third wave which would result in a corrective structure that would see the pair move higher and sideways in short term. Mel Knox: A sustained break below 1.3000 may be a challenge in the week ahead. Scott Nourse: As EU bond yields begin to rise again and the ECB outlook is gloomy and dovish, we expect further Euro printing to weaken the currency. We may see consolidation under 1.3000 before a big push toward 1.2000 when the next shoe drops. Shawn Beecher: Strong USD = weak Euro…..with an even weaker Euro to follow. Yohay Elam: The deterioration in the debt crisis happened sooner than expected. Together with consistent US stability, there's more room for drops in the pair. ПС. буржуазный декаданс прямо 
Додано: Сер 11 кві, 2012 12:10
Re: Валютный рынок в миреНужно срочно тему поддержать, а то на спектакль с одним актёром смахивает.
От себя - перестал интересоваться евро\долларом.Причина - крайне низкая доходность от этого мероприятия.У кого она осталась высокой - поздравляю и ничего против не имею.Стало скучно наблюдать за одними и те ми же новостями, нет реального движа, соплежуйство и не более.
Додано: Вів 17 кві, 2012 10:44
EUR/USD, тижневий інтервал :
синя горизонталь - лінія інверсної (перевернутої) формації "Голова та Плечі" - останній бастіон захисту євро від більших неприємностей денний інтервал : дуже двино : технічний рівень 1,3054 (денна нижня хмаринка Ішимоку) в котрий раз (втретє ??? !!!) стримує небезпечний прохід нижче 1,30 Ева тримається, як кажуть, на морально-вольових ))) щоб це означало ???
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