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Аналіз фондового ринку та прогнози ринку цінних паперів України. Актуальна аналітика фондового ринку, котирування, прибутковість акцій та огляд ринку.
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Повідомлення Додано: Чет 11 вер, 2014 21:31

Почему Алибаба в Китае катит ...

Alibaba is just plain big, even by Chinese standards. Its marketplaces attract 231 million active buyers, 8 million sellers, 11.3 billion orders a year -- and Alibaba is just the middleman.

Unlike Amazon (AMZN -0.74%), it doesn't host big inventories. It uses incentives for people to use its markets -- not charging small sellers a percentage of the sale, for one -- and keeps them coming back.

If you want a glimpse into how pervasive Alibaba is in daily Chinese life, take my experience. I moved to Beijing almost a year ago and quickly got tired of visiting small stores across the crowded, polluted city of 20 million people in search of new electronics, bathroom furnishings, and anything else my wife wanted.

"You're looking for what exactly?" my Chinese teacher asked me one day. With that, my wonderful new relationship with Alibaba began.

Alibaba's original business-to-business​ model now is secondary to consumer buying. Chinese retail buying generates 80 percent of Alibaba's revenue, and leading that group is Taobao (pictured), a sort of advanced eBay (EBAY -0.72%), with 800 million items for sale and the most bizarre selection of things you'll ever find. (You could buy Harvard email addresses for $390, a boyfriend for $130 a day :oops: , and industrial 3M ear plugs for quiet studying for 30 cents.)

TMall.com is Alibaba's other big site, where you can find brand name goods from Nike (NKE -0.96%) and Unilever (UL -0.46%) near the lowest prices, similar to Amazon.com.

What I have a hard time explaining to friends and family back in the U.S. is how China has leapfrogged traditional shopping -- big-box retailers especially -- in favor of online purchases on Taobao and a few other sites. In smaller towns than Beijing, where big retailers have not yet traveled, shopping online is shopping, and shopping is Taobao.

Amazon's ease of use might promote binge-buying, but it's got nothing on Taobao, which is just as easy to use (granted you read Mandarin, or have friends who do), usually includes free shipping, and includes candid reviews of a product's quality.

Here's a list of some of my recent purchases on Taobao for a sense of how extensive the marketplace is. Almost everything arrived a day or two after ordering with free shipping. I’m not even a big buyer, because I need friends to help me navigate the Chinese-language site. When I was searching my purchase history on my Chinese teacher's iPad, who helps me buy stuff, I waded through about 10 of her purchases for every one of mine.

LIST:

iPad cover: $4.60
Fake Kindle-branded cover: $7.50
Christmas napkins: $2.50
A money safe (because China, annoyingly, is still a cash-based society): $35.70
Toaster: $9.50
Coffee maker: $11.20
Coffee bean grinder: $22.10
Plant fertilizer: $1.60
American-brand cat food (because my wife still doesn't trust Chinese brands): $15
Vacuum plastic tube piece to replace broken one (for the exact same model): $1.64. $2.30 delivery fee for two.
Moped hand warmers for winter riding: $3
Moped helmets: $12 a piece
Two-wheeled cart to transport a 50-lb. moped battery: $4
Industrial chain bike lock: $11.80 Plus $3 shipping fee
Room fan: $9.50
HEPA filters for the room fan, to clean air where our top-of-the-line Swiss-made air purifier doesn't reach: $22.90


The promise Alibaba talks about, and why investors are valuing the company north of $160 billion, is its network effect -- essentially, that when more people join, the more people buy, and the better it is for everyone including Alibaba.

The counterfeit problem seems mostly fixed because you either know you are buying fake goods on Taobao, or if fakes arrive, your money to the seller sits in escrow until you're satisfied. If you're not, you simply return.

Taobao is already engrained in Chinese life, and investors are considering the possibilities of monster growth to come for Alibaba because online shopping is still at relatively low levels in China, as the company points out in its IPO filing (49 percent of Internet users in China shop online versus 74 percent in the U.S.).
As more Chinese buy stuff online, Alibaba's network should create more repetitive buyers like me. Now, I can't imagine life without Taobao.

Али-Джин
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Повідомлення Додано: П'ят 12 вер, 2014 08:15

Аня, а ты веришь циклистам?
Нагнетают просто ужас. :shock:
Но выход есть - инвестиции в золото нас спасут. :lol:

If Economic Cycle Theorists Are Correct, 2015 To 2020 Will Be Pure Hell For The United States

Charles Nenner Research
Stocks should peak in mid-2013 and fall until about 2020. Similarly, bonds should peak in the summer of 2013 and fall thereafter for 20 years. He bases his conclusions entirely on cycle research. He expects the Dow to fall to around 5,000 by 2018 – 2020.

Kress Cycles (Clif Droke)
The major 120 year cycle plus all minor cycles trend down into late 2014. The stock market should decline hard into late 2014.

Elliott Wave (Robert Prechter)
He believes that the stock market has peaked and has entered a generational bear-market. He anticipates a crash low in the market around 2016 – 2017.

Market Energy Waves
He sees a 36 year cycle in stock markets that is peaking in mid-2013 and will cycle down for 2013 – 2016. “… the controlling energy wave is scheduled to flip back to negative on July 19 of this year.” Equity markets should drop 25 – 50%.

Armstrong Economics
His economic confidence model projects a peak in confidence in August 2013, a bottom in September 2014, and another peak in October 2015. The decline into January 2020 should be severe. He expects a world-wide crash and contraction in economies from 2015 – 2020.

Cycles per Charles Hugh Smith
He discusses four long-term cycles that bottom in the 2010 – 2020 period. They are: Credit expansion/contraction cycle, Price inflation/wage cycle, Generational cycle, and Peak oil extraction cycle.


http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/arch ... ted-states

И еще продолжение тут :shock: :

http://deviantinvestor.com/4669/going-d ... -downward/

War Cycles
Larry Edelson
His research shows that the world-wide tendency to fight major wars rises and falls over time. He currently projects a peak about 2020 with rising war fever from 2013 until 2020. There is no shortage of possible war zones. As conditions worsen during the balance of this decade, nations will be inclined to distract and control their populace via wars, increased government control, and management of the economy.

Long-Term War Cycles
1780, 1860, 1940, 2020? About every 80 years there has been a major war involving the United States.

Gold & Silver

Jim Sinclair
He expected a major low in gold price cycles in March or April of 2013; however, June provided an even lower low. He still expects gold to rally much higher from here. “Gold is going to and through $3,500 in the not too distant future.” He has decades of experience in the markets and has successfully understood and traded gold since the 1970s.

Alf Field
He uses Elliott Wave theory to analyze gold. His first major target for gold is $4,500, for Intermediate wave III of MAJOR THREE. Wave IV will be a correction and wave V will take gold much higher thereafter.

Charles Nenner Research
He expects gold to bottom about now and rally substantially from here. He called the top in gold two years ago. He called for a bottom about now in the $1,300s. He expects a large rally that lasts several years.

Larry Edelson
He projects a low for gold in June 2013 followed by a substantial rally until about 2020, possibly to $10,000.

Armstrong Economics
Gold is likely to be weak until after October 2015 and then move strongly higher into January 2020. Gold will rise primarily due to the collapse of paper currencies in the period from 2015 – 2020.

Other Cycles

Comet ISON
This comet will be visible in October and November 2013 – it is expected to be the brightest comet in years, perhaps many decades. Highly visible comets often indicate sudden changes in leadership, political systems, and financial systems. Possible changes include the failure or redesign of the Euro, a dollar crash, assassination of a major leader, impeachment, derivative implosion, martial law, international war, and a major economic default.

JR Nyquist on global cooling and food production
He discusses long-term solar output cycles. He anticipates that an approximately 200 year cycle in solar output will reduce average temperatures, available water, and crop yields. He expects higher food prices and famine during the next decade. The last cold cycle low was around the time Napoleon marched into Russia.

100 year anniversaries
1913 was an important year. It marked the beginning of the Federal Reserve and the income tax in the US. 2013 has already shown that essentially all digital communications and internet activity are tracked and recorded by the government. It has also marked the authorization for military control and martial law in the United States. Further, bank account and brokerage confiscations (bail-ins) have already occurred; and more “bail-ins” are likely. 2013 could mark the beginning of what might evolve into WWIII – starting in the Middle East.

Summary

There are many cycles that suggest a stock market correction or crash is near.
Али-Джин
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Повідомлення Додано: Вів 16 вер, 2014 12:57

  Libo написав:Аня,
Всё-таки решил взять штук двести ВАВА с первых же минут ... В свое время я не послушал свою интуицию с Теслой, когда та была еще по $35, решил не изменять своему принципу - не связываться с интернет компаниями - и пропустил Фейсбук ... B вот сейчас опять слышу настойчивый сигнал из космоса: "Бери!"... :lol:
Имел недавно видение, что на Алибабе можно хорошо спекульнуть, предсказуемо и быстро заработать 50-100%... :oops:
А если вдруг промажем и капельку потеряем, то не страшно.
Тут всё как с девушкой - лучше сделать ЭТО и потом пожалеть, чем не сделать и потом об этом жалеть ...
Будешь скоро смотреть на курс Алибабы, вспоминать меня и завидовать ...
:lol: :lol: :lol:

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/alibaba- ... 7XA0w.html


The company has just raised upper limit of price range to $70 from $66.
San
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Повідомлення Додано: П'ят 19 вер, 2014 09:45

Заявки на Алибабу начинали принимать в 4:00 рм по НЙ, в моей части света тогда уже была глупая ночь ... Не поленился и встал ... Все сайты торговцев висели - самая жадная, стадная и многочисленная часть человечества дрощащими руками размещала свои заявки ... Прождав безрезультатно час, лёг нафик спать ... Подал уже после утренней чашки кофе ...

:lol: :lol: :lol:
Libo
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Повідомлення Додано: П'ят 19 вер, 2014 16:28

Latest indication for Alibaba open $82-85 per share ... :(
Libo
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Повідомлення Додано: Вів 23 вер, 2014 23:27

Купил, по 90 с лишним, хапанул тогда сразу, но восторгом пока не упился, блин ...
А они как всегда потом растолковывают ...
Вот если бы вчера я был такой умный, как моя тёща сегодня!
:lol: :lol: :lol:

Wouldn't it be ironic if this great bull market ended last Friday, on the occasion of Alibaba's (BABA -3.03%) record-setting IPO, the largest in history?

More than a few of the investment advisers I monitor are entertaining that possibility, especially in light of Monday's triple-digit loss in the Dow and the Nasdaq's decline of more than 1 percent. Alibaba dropped over 4 percent on its second day of trading.

Those advisers point out that history's most significant market tops have often been accompanied by high-profile events that prompt the average investor to overcome any residue of skepticism they may be harboring.
Libo
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Повідомлення Додано: Чет 25 вер, 2014 08:14

  Grankina Anna написав:
Никаких IPO никогда не брать, пока не проторгуется примерно полгода... Вы ж не видите ни тренда, ни фундамента по акции... Ну как можно нырять не зная глубины...


Конечно, IPO это как сыграть шестерную в темную... Но если тебе сегодня карта прёт, то рискнуть можно.
Интересно про IPO, ну и в целом об эпохе, в которой мы живем:

For investors looking to place bets on newly public companies, 2014 has been an amazing year. Through the month of August, 204 businesses have held initial public offerings for their stock, for a combined value of $46.4 billion.

According to The Wall Street Journal, both of those numbers are the highest the IPO world has seen since 2000.

But 2014 is close to setting another millennium record: The percentage of IPOs where the company has negative earnings -- that is, is losing money -- is nearing a 14-year peak.

A report from Asset Allocation Advisers, using data from SentimenTrader, shows the proportion of in-the-red IPOs recently hit 83 percent, just one point lower than their previous high in 2000.

That year seems to be coming up a lot -- remind me what happened around then? Oh, right. :lol:

The last time such a large share of IPOs were profitless was at the top of the dot-com bubble, and when that bubble burst, the S&P 500 ($INX +0.78%) lost almost half of its value.

Gregory Schultz, co-owner of Asset Allocation Advisers, and co-author of the report, thinks more earnings-free IPOs are one indication the tech bubble is back.

"It might come in the same box with a different color bow, but like Yogi Berra said, it's deja vu all over again," Schultz told Money. "The impression I get is if you have a mobile app and a website, you can gather money."

Why is the market so willing to support the latest Web startup, never mind profits? Schultz thinks low interest rates and the Fed's policy of "quantitative easing" have made investors are more willing to put their cash in risky ventures in hopes of capturing a higher return.

But while some think the new IPO boom could mean the market is overvalued, others see a different explanation. Rich Peterson, an analyst at S&P Capital IQ, says a surge in profitless IPOs is actually driven by the kind of companies seeking public investment. And it's not just tech stocks.

"One of the more popular or active sectors for IPOs has come in the biotech field," says Peterson. His numbers shows this type of firms taking up about 22 percent of the year's IPO market so far. "By their nature, biotechnology companies don't make money [early on], they burn through a lot of cash, so it's not surprising."

Early indicators suggest most of 2014's IPO class is actually doing quite well. Of the 134 companies that did IPOs this year and reported second quarter earnings, 72 beat analyst expectations, and only 54 missed their mark.

Peterson cautions that an IPO's early success does not guarantee good results in the long run, but says the high share of zero-profit IPOs does not concern him.

Of course, the simplest explanation for more earnings-negative IPOs is that stocks are currently in high demand. The S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio, based on 10 years of average earnings, is a little above 25. That's higher than historical norms, meaning the public is willing to pay a lot for equities in general.

When investors are especially eager to buy stock, it makes sense for companies to obtain capital (or for founders to cash out :lol: ) by selling shares. In short, the rise of the no-profit IPOs is a predictable side effect of the market boom.

Less predictable is when the boom ends.

:roll:

Libo
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Повідомлення Додано: Чет 25 вер, 2014 21:41

Libo

вот кстати хотела обратить ваше внимание на еще на одно недавнее IPO

GPRO у этой компании хоть как то видны точки прорыва... и динамика соответственно...
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Повідомлення Додано: Чет 02 жов, 2014 06:35

Вчера опять ужасный день был.
Еще Лиза Абрамович не навевает оптимизм.
Надо тормозить и ушки на макушки.
Правильно, Аня? :roll:

By Lisa Abramowicz

One man shook a $42 trillion bond market last week, highlighting just how vulnerable bond prices are to shocks.

Bill Gross’s surprise departure on Friday from Pacific Investment Management Co. sparked selloffs in some of his biggest wagers, such as inflation-protected U.S. government bonds.

One person -- even a really important person -- pushing around borrowing costs for nations and companies worldwide, however briefly, shows the increasing fragility of credit markets that have swelled on the heels of trillions of dollars of central-bank stimulus. Debt still largely changes hands off exchanges, through telephone calls and e-mails.

It’s become increasingly difficult to buy and sell debt as new regulations prompt Wall Street banks to curtail their holdings. Average daily trading in the U.S. bond market fell to $809 billion in 2013 from $1.04 trillion in 2008, according to data compiled by the Securities Industry & Financial Markets Association.

Banks are less willing to cushion big swings using their own balance sheets and Gross’s exit shows just how little it takes to move the needle in the global bond market, which has ballooned by 48 percent since 2008.

Record monetary stimulus has fueled gains of 30 percent on bonds globally since the end of 2008 and concern is mounting about what happens when borrowing costs increase. Flows may reverse, causing losses that spur others to sell, and resulting in a spiraling selloff.

The effects of Gross’s departure from Pimco will probably fade away soon enough. The inability to quickly trade in many parts of the debt market is the bigger issue.



Libo
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Повідомлення Додано: Чет 02 жов, 2014 08:11

Libo

вот здесь спорить не буду
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