Kate Duguid in New York and Naomi Rovnick in London
Strongest dollar in 16 months hits emerging market currencies
Strong US retail sales data helped to lift the dollar to a 16-month high on Tuesday, driving down emerging market currencies, including the Turkish lira which fell to a record low.
US retail sales rose 1.7 per cent in October from the previous month, a larger gain than economists had expected. The October data indicated shoppers were accepting higher inflation, but raised questions about how long the Federal Reserve could hold US interest rates at record lows.
Higher rates are generally seen as a boon to the dollar, increasing its attractiveness against other currencies. And the move on Tuesday suggested that traders were betting that strong consumer demand could add to the inflationary pressures that may force the US central bank to raise rates sooner than expected.
That view was underpinned by comments from James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, who told Bloomberg in an interview on Tuesday that “tacking hawkishly now could pay great dividends for the committee in the year ahead”.
The dollar has rallied since Wednesday, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that consumer prices had risen at the fastest pace in more than three decades.
Earlier in the session, the retailer Walmart also raised its full-year sales and earnings forecasts alongside quarterly results that surpassed analysts’ expectations.
“The stronger the consumer outlook, the more pressure there will be for inflation,” said Gergely Majoros, investment committee member at the European fund manager Carmignac.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six rival currencies, rose 0.5 per cent on Tuesday, pushing most other currencies globally lower. Some of the most notable moves were in emerging markets including the Turkish lira, the South African rand and the Mexican peso.
“This is broad dollar move,” said Mazen Issa, senior foreign exchange strategist at TD Securities. “Within the foreign exchange complex, what you’re seeing is the dollar strengthening against most currencies. I think that is a dynamic that is going to be hard trend for EM currencies to buck.”
The Turkish currency fell to an all-time low of 10.44 lira to the dollar early on Tuesday and was last at 10.29, down 2.3 per cent. The rise in the dollar is just the most recent concern for the lira, which has fallen 28 per cent this year, the worst performance of any emerging market currency. Much of that move has happened since September, when the Turkish central bank made the first of two unexpected rate cuts under pressure from President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Another cut may come this week.
The South African rand fell to its lowest level since March. The Mexican peso was only at its weakest since early November, but may move further if rate speculation ramps up. “Within Latin America, the Mexican peso in particular is actually the most sensitive to changes in US fixed income yields,” Issa said.
The blue-chip S&P 500 gained 0.6 per cent, nearing its all-time high, while the technology-focused Nasdaq Composite rose 0.8 per cent.
While fears of prolonged inflation would generally depress the price and raise the yield of the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, it has been relatively steady in recent weeks. On Tuesday the yield was 0.02 percentage points higher at 1.63 per cent.
By contrast the two-year Treasury yield, which tracks short-term monetary policy expectations, has climbed from about 0.4 per cent ahead of the US consumer prices report on Wednesday to 0.52 per cent.
Europe’s regional Stoxx 600 index closed the day 0.2 per cent higher, ecking out its latest record high as a rally in energy shares following a surge in gas prices added to gains notched up during a better than expected quarterly earnings season. The FTSE 100 in London closed 0.3 per cent lower.
In Asia, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng share index closed 1.3 per cent higher to reflect optimism about discussions between US president Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. In a rare virtual meeting, Biden urged Xi to not allow competition between the two economic powers and closely linked trading partners to “veer into conflict”
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Додано: Вів 16 лис, 2021 23:17
Financial Times о влиянии дорожающего доллара на валюты развивающихся стран:
Додано: Вів 16 лис, 2021 23:23
respect somilitark в 9:30 так угадать цифру это просто wow! но я почему-то в сегодняшний рост не верю...
Додано: Вів 16 лис, 2021 23:24
Re: Валютный рынок в контексте ДСА Евро вже 1.13 на падінні можна добре скупитися.
Додано: Вів 16 лис, 2021 23:30
На падении Евро и росте доллара? Это только, если за доллар. Но опять проблема с угадыванием уровня. 1.1290? 1.11? 1.05? С Евро может быть очень и долго больно, если не угадать.
Додано: Сер 17 лис, 2021 03:58
Re: Валютный рынок в контексте ДСНа прошлой неделе ещё покупал дважды, по 26.2, к сожалению не много
Сегодня покупал по 26,5, опять. Хотя и розничные покупатели выглядели уж больно оленевидно сегодня, но думаю всю имеющуюся гривну буду конвертить в СКВ. Всё, что до 27.2 приемлимо, даже и еврик по 30 выглядит привлекательно, а новая гривна с новых доходов если что насобирается. Но тоже кмк слишком резкий разгон какой-то. Завтра НБУ выходит с продажами, 30-40 лямов переворачивают рынок опять, к вечеру покупает дежурную 5ку ниже, чем продавал, в четверг и пятницу выгребает по 26,2-26,3)) Это не прогноз, а так, ночная ахинея 
Додано: Сер 17 лис, 2021 09:56
Вчера прочитал инфу, что вчерашний скачок доллара "сделали" спекулянты. Причем в этом частично были замешаны даже несколько гос-х банков. Мол экономических предпосылок для роста доллара и евро сейчас нет.
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