цікаві деталі останнього звіту комісії з ф*ючерної торгівлі CFTC :
* дані Чікагської товарної біржі
комерційні хеджери купують Євро, страхуючи ризики його росту очевидно, більшість цієї категорії трейдерів - резидентів США - пов*язані з операціями товарного імпорту з країн Єврозони
фінансові шпекулянти накопичують відкриті курсові ризики, надалі збільшуючи короткі позиції на очікуваннях подальшого падіння
звісно, природа їх операцій суто спекулятивна тому вразлива до різкої зміни напрямку торгів - з продажу до купівлі, чи навпаки
ANZ Adopts A Bearish EUR/USD View For The First Time In 2+ Years One of the most consistently and strategically EUR bulls has just thrown in the towel. Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ), who back in March made a strong argument against potential EUR weakness and was seeing EUR/USD ending the year at 1.42, has officially adopted a bearish short-term EUR/USD view for the first time in more that 2 years. Here is how ANZ puts in a note to clients today along with its new EUR/USD forecasts.
On this basis, we continue to expect peripheral currency weakness to be the dominant trend. We also, for the first time, expect the EUR to be part of this dynamic, if but only in the near-term. We adopt a bearish short-term EUR view against the USD for the first time in more than two years. To the extent this EUR view is driven at least partly by the USD side of the equation, we remain distrustful of calls for broad EUR weakness on the crosses.
Reasons Why It's Difficult To Weaken The EUR - ANZ 18 Mar 2014 13:36
In terms of monitoring the exchange rate, ANZ thinks that while it is plausible that jawboning may help to influence its level in the very short term by creating greater uncertainty around its path, raising the prospects of being effective over time would probably require verbal intervention to be accompanied by an easing in domestic monetary policy.
Unless this is the case, ANZ argues that the ability to engineer a “permanent” depreciation in the euro would seem to be quite difficult at present in lights of the following 6 factors:
1- The euro area is running a large trade surplus. In 2013 is amounted to EUR151.7bn compared to EUR77.8bn in 2012. That is despite a 3.9% appreciation in the nominal exchange rate on average in 2013 versus 2012.
2-The current account position is even more impressive. In Q4 last year, the surplus was EUR66.8bn compared with EUR37.8bn in 2012 Q4.
3- The fiscal position of the euro area has improved too. In Q3 last year the deficit amounted to 3.1% of GDP compared to 3.7% a year earlier.
4- As we know, inflation is low, both domestically and versus abroad. At 0.7% y/y, it is below that of main trading partners mainly the US (1.1%), UK (1.9%) and China (2.0%). That helps to raise the real value of the euro.
5- Meanwhile, increasingly there is evidence that the economy is slowly beginning to recover, difficulties in the banking system are being addressed and structural reforms and greater integration at an EU governance level (ie fiscal compact, ESM) are also strong pillars of support for the exchange rate.
6- It was only a few months ago that Draghi said that the euro had the strongest fundamentals in the world.
"We would tend to agree with that assessment and feel that current statements on the exchange rate are aimed more at trying to slow the euro's rise rather than reverse it," ANZ concludes.
моє альтер-его ) та побратим )) євро-оптиміст шанований банк ANZ змушений переглянути свої прогнози по Євро під тиском ринкових настроїв кукелів
я ж дотримуюся й надалі нейтрально-позитивного бачення :
технічні викладки від 23-Тра-14 та торгівельний план не змінний
тактика хеджування та паралельного відкриття позицій на продаж GBP (short GBP/USD) та CAD (buy USD/CAD) - до купівлі Євро - дозволяє компенсувати вартість стопів на long EUR/USD та перезаходити нижче
Is The Fed Behind The Curve? Absolutely & Equivocally YES - Citi
"Quite clearly, as history shows, the Fed kept rates too low for too long after the housing /economic/equity market downturns and a major inflation shock ensued," Citi argues.
"Here despite the Fed again starting a tightening cycle from a positive real yield level, unemployment continued to fall, inflation remained stable , real yields rose sharply (To the very obvious benefit of savers) and the economy continued to recover."
Бичі прогнози на укріплення доляра базуються на впевненості більш швидкого - та раннього ! - підняття ставок Федрезервом аніж це передбачається ринковим консенсусом зараз та враховано ф*ючерсами на ринкові % ставки
The USD Index surge higher last week, leaving the market critically poised beneath key resistance from the top of its nine-month range at 81.14/81.48, notes Credit Suisse.
"Although this remains a formidable barrier, and should clearly be respected, above 81.48 would suggest an important base has been established, and a more significant bullish phase can emerge," CS argues.
"If achieved, we would target 81.83 initially, then 82.52/67 – the late September 2013 high and 61.8% retracement of the 2013/2014 downtrend. The measured target from the base would be seen higher at 83.48," CS adds.
What CS additionally find important is that we are seeing noticeable signs of USD strength elsewhere, in NZD/USD and USD/CAD, but also USD/CHF.
"Of most interest though is EURUSD, where, as we recently highlighted, we have seen a medium-term bearish reversal complete. A base in the USD should clearly help this trade, and we thus maintain our 1.3248 and then 1.2755 targets," CS projects.
"Yet some clients increasingly are asking what will lead the Fed to turn more hawkish or to start hiking sooner. In this piece, we address that question by highlighting the three principles of Fed watching: (1) patience is a virtue; (2) risk management favors lower for longer; and (3) watch out for hawkish "Fed fakes.""
дякуючи прозорливим відвертим коментарім Bank of America Merrill Lynch не відчуваю себе одинаком
Додано: П'ят 25 лип, 2014 15:48
