ЛОБ написав:мій прогноз на 1-е півріччя : 10,00 х 1,42 = 14,20
Схамениться. Вы же боитесь 12-14грн. за доллар? Так давайте сразу 1,4*12=16,8грн. Разница между Вами и маркетмейкерами огромна, но им позволительно делать не ординарные прогнозы
What To Expect From ECB? - Goldman, Citi, BofA, BMO, Barclays, & Others
GS: GS and Consensus see the main policy tools - depo, MRO and MLR - unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and 0.75% respectively.
Citi: ECB need not cut rates but it could strengthen its rate guidance and signal willingness for more action before long. Next to rate cuts, the bank could consider the introducing FLS-type programs as well as suspending the SMP sterilization. The former could expand ECB’s balance sheet while the latter could be perceived as the first step towards fully-fledged QE. While disappointing for the euro-shorts hoping for a cut, the ECB meeting could keep the markets betting on more easing and make any EUR-bounce a good selling opportunity.
BofA: We expect no policy changes by the ECB, but risks for further easing in the near term have increased. Low inflation and funding market volatility justify a dovish tone and signal downward risk to rates. We see balanced market risks, depending on whether the ECB language will be dovish enough to offset inaction.
Barclays: We remain short EUR/USD as a trade recommendation – a tactical trade over this week’s ECB meeting. Our economists now expect a cut to both the refinancing rate (-15bp) and the deposit rate (-10bp, into negative territory) in either this week’s meeting, or in March. The recent negative surprises to German and EA inflation add weight to this view. If a rate cut does not materialize in the February meeting, we see the risks to the EUR trade as relatively asymmetric in any case, as a dovish outlook and potential indications of a policy response are likely to emerge in the press conference. Our core view remains that EUR/USD is likely to grind lower over the medium term, though a move towards negative deposit rates would significantly speed up the process.
Nomura: While we recognise that the probability of further easing has risen significantly, on balance we believe that the ECB might want to accumulate a bit more information before taking such a decision. The pressure to ease will likely remain high even if the Governing Council does not decide to act this month as our inflation forecast for both February and March is 0.7%.
BMO: Consensus is for key rate to remain on hold at 0.25% but risk is for a cut in the order of 5-25bps. Further enhancement to dovish rhetoric is a near certainty, whilst the chance of new easing is about 50%. If the ECB does choose to ease this week, we expect ‘preventative’ not ‘corrective’ measures at this stage. This could be a good week to start positioning for medium-term EURUSD downside.
Credit Agricole: We believe that the ECB will remain on hold during is today Governing Council. This would be a close call and we expect a small cut in the refi rate to be decided during the March meeting. There are four explanatory variables in the monetary policy equation of the ECB: of course inflation and monetary and credit developments, but also the economic activity and money markets’ volatility. One month ago, President Draghi focused especially on inflation and money markets; this is not a reason to forget the two other elements.
Commerzbank: We are still convinced that, on a medium-term perspective, core inflation will turn out much lower than the ECB currently assumes. As a result, the central bank is likely to cut key rates once more. However, the ECB is unlikely to see the need for action this week.
Credit Suisse: We think the ECB could cut in March or April, putting in place a negative deposit rate and a marginal reduction in the key policy rate. However, there is a chance that the ECB could surprise and cut today. We believe that the cut in the deposit rate would be limited to a negative rate of around 10 bp. A marginally negative deposit rate is also likely to be accompanied by a token cut. The Global Macro Pulse 3 in the ECB's key policy rate, and we expect the latter to be lowered by 10 bp-15 bp from the current 25 bp. There is also the possibility that the ECB might stop sterilizing the SMP. Such a decision would not surprise us given the decline of excess liquidity, but we would not view such a decision as a monetary policy signal.
Додано: Вів 04 лют, 2014 11:52
